Larry Sabato Shifts NV-03 from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic”

Henderson, Nev. – Today, with just 12 days until Election Day, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ballmade a key ratings change in Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District, shifting the battleground House seat from “Toss-up” to “Leans Democratic.”

The election analysts wrote that Rosen is “a small favorite against frequent candidate Danny Tarkanian” and noted that strong early voting in Nevada favors Clinton and Rosen in the swing seat and that Rosen “may be better positioned in an evenly-divided district where Trump seems likely to underperform.” Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston validated the ratings change, saying, “This is correct, FYI.”

Here’s the full analysis from Crystal Ball.

“We have a handful of changes this week. The most significant is in NV-3, where we now see former synagogue leader Jacky Rosen (D) as a small favorite against frequent candidate Danny Tarkanian (R). The same factors helping Clinton in early voting also help Rosen in this swing seat. Both parties have produced dueling internal polls showing their respective candidates ahead, but Rosen may be better positioned in an evenly-divided district where Trump seems likely to underperform Mitt Romney’s 2012 showing.”